And then there were two ("long-term winners"): Google and Amazon
Google and Amazon have been hailed as the two “long-term winners” poised to withstand rocky economic times, according to a new report put out by a Wall Street firm.
I tend to be wary and skeptical of these kinds of reports, and this one’s no different.
The report, called “U.S. Internet: The End of the Beginning” (catchy, eh?), cites Google’s and Amazon’s continued “30-40 percent growth rates” and claims that other major players, such as Yahoo and IAC InterActiveCorp, will be weaker bets long-term.
Yahoo will likely get gobbled up by Microsoft or rearranged by one or more major strategic partnerships, so that part of the analysis makes sense. But what of Microsoft as a long term bet? And MySpace, Facebook, and so on?
I think that using the term “long-term winner” and narrowing it down to a select group of only two companies can be dangerous and misleading. The truth is there are many (many thousands perhaps?) of highly successful long-term Internet businesses. Let’s look at a few:
* Pro Blogger: Darren Rowse has been around for years, makes a full-time living through blogging, and helps people to find their inner professional blogger. Long-term winner? Yeah, absolutely.
* Craig’s List: It’s been around forever by Internet standards, is more popular than ever (ranked #45 on Alexa, wow!), and is in very real ways putting print newspapers out of business. Just because its raison d’etre isn’t myopically focused on the bottom line doesn’t disqualify it as a long-term winner.
* Daily Kos: With election season upon us again (is there an off-season these days, actually?), the Kos is home for the online left-leaning masses. Daily Kos helped to define the new “net roots,” and is continuing to shape and influence politics, both online and off. Long-winner? See: the 2006 U.S. Congressional elections for proof.
So those are three quick examples, and note how all three are “long-term winners” in their own unique ways. Google and Amazon may be bigger and badder and more prepped for the long haul than most, but that doesn’t mean that there’s a vast array of winners out there that aren’t going anywhere anytime soon.
